MeritValue

JOYY Inc.

JOYYdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

JOYY Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 32% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.25 and $3.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.62B1$2.41B2$2.27B3$2.24B3$2.12B3
Net income−$80.3M4$128.9M5$301.8M6−$146.2M6$2.1B6
Operating cash flow$210.4M7$316.5M8$295.6M9$308.7M9$302.3M9
Capital expenditure$70.8M10$69M11$81.6M12$83.7M12$143.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$139.6M7$247.5M8$214M9$224.9M9$159.2M9
Total debt$013$37.3M14$52.1M15$34.9M16$10.7M16
Cash & equivalents$1.84B17$1.21B18$1.06B19$444.8M20$374.2M20
Diluted shares1.56B1.65B1.46B1.16B1.07B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$61.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.49
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.1

10 shares is a claim on $61.41 of net worth that earned you $19.7 and generated $1.49 of cash last year, against $0.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 15%FY23 7%FY24 -4%FY25 3%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−32% shares · 5y

Share count is down 32% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.25 and $3.21 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$214M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$214M
Earnings Power Value
$1.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$128.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.5
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.21
Base0.0%$3.21
Bull5.0%$3.91

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052917 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000972 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-049917 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052917 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000972 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-049917 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052917 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000972 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-049917 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052917 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000972 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-049917 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000819 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052917 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000972 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-049917 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000819 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052917 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000972 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-049917 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)