MeritValue

JOHNSON OUTDOORS INC

JOUTdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

JOHNSON OUTDOORS INC earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.72 and $43.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$751.7M1$743.4M2$663.8M3$592.8M3$592.4M3
Net income$83.4M4$44.5M5$19.5M6−$26.5M6−$34.3M6
Operating cash flow$58.3M7−$62.1M8$41.7M9$41M9$56.2M9
Capital expenditure$21.4M10$31.7M11$22.7M12$22M12$16M12
Free cash flow (derived)$36.9M7−$93.8M8$19M9$19M9$40.2M9
Total debt$013$014$015$016$016
Cash & equivalents$240.4M17$129.8M18$111.9M19$145.5M20$176.4M20
Diluted shares10.1M10.2M10.2M10.2M10.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$407.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$33.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.2
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $407.66 of net worth that earned you −$33.41 and generated $39.2 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 38%FY22 12%FY23 5%FY24 -7%FY25 -3%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.72 and $43.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$41.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$19M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$43.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$19M
Earnings Power Value
$19.72
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$19.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $43.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$43.7
Base0.0%$43.7
Bull5.0%$50.11

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001140361-23-056923 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001140361-24-049014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001140361-25-045348 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001140361-23-056923 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001140361-24-049014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001140361-25-045348 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001140361-23-056923 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001140361-24-049014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001140361-25-045348 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001140361-23-056923 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001140361-24-049014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001140361-25-045348 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001140361-22-045097 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001140361-23-056923 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001140361-24-049014 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-27 · accession 0001140361-25-045348 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001140361-22-045097 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001140361-23-056923 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001140361-24-049014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-27 · accession 0001140361-25-045348 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)