MeritValue

ST JOE Co

JOEdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ST JOE Co earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.33 and $98.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$267M1$252.3M2$389.3M3$402.7M3$513.2M3
Net income$74.6M4$70.9M5$77.7M6$74.2M6$115.6M6
Operating cash flow$111.8M7$48.2M8$103.8M9$108M9$190.7M9
Capital expenditure$4.3M10$7.35M11$6.18M12$7.75M12$4.06M12
Free cash flow (derived)$107.5M7$40.9M8$97.7M9$100.2M9$186.6M9
Total debt$223M13$385.9M14$453.6M15$437.8M16$391.2M16
Cash & equivalents$70.2M17$37.7M18$86.1M19$88.8M19$129.6M19
Diluted shares58.9M58.7M58.3M58.3M58.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$132.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.95
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.2
Debt you’d be carrying
$67.49

10 shares is a claim on $132.21 of net worth that earned you $19.95 and generated $32.2 of cash last year, against $67.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 9%FY23 9%FY24 7%FY25 11%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 75% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.33 and $98.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$98.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$100.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$51.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$100.2M
Earnings Power Value
$13.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$74.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $51.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.2
Base20.0%$51.88
Bull20.0%$51.88

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001435 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001603 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019676 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001435 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001603 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019676 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001435 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001603 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019676 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001435 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001603 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019676 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001760 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001435 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001603 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019676 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001435 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001603 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019676 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)