MeritValue

Joby Aviation, Inc.

JOBYdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Joby Aviation, Inc. earns about -48% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 180% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$02$1.03M3$136,0003$53.4M3
Net income−$180.3M4−$258M5−$513.1M6−$608M6−$929.8M6
Operating cash flow−$195.7M7−$235.9M8−$313.8M9−$436.3M9−$509.9M9
Capital expenditure$32.3M10$54.9M11$30.6M12$40.6M12$53.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$228.1M7−$290.8M8−$344.4M9−$476.9M9−$563.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$955.6M13$146.1M14$204M15$199.6M15$240.8M15
Diluted shares294.9M585.5M647.9M699.8M826.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$17.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.25
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.82
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $17.06 of net worth that earned you −$11.25 and generated −$6.82 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-48% avg · 5y
FY21 -41%FY22 -20%FY23 -49%FY24 -67%FY25 -63%

It earned an average -48% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+180% shares · 5y

Share count is up 180% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819848-24-000125 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819848-25-000196 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819848-26-000160 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819848-24-000125 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819848-25-000196 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819848-26-000160 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819848-24-000125 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819848-25-000196 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819848-26-000160 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819848-24-000125 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819848-25-000196 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819848-26-000160 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819848-24-000125 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819848-25-000196 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819848-26-000160 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)