John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.
JMSBdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on fileJohn Marshall Bancorp, Inc. earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.5 and $20.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $74.1M1 | $84.1M2 | $100.8M3 | $110.1M4 | $113.3M4 |
| Net income | $25.5M5 | $31.8M6 | $5.16M7 | $17.1M8 | $21.2M8 |
| Operating cash flow | $32.4M9 | $33.2M10 | $18M11 | $17.3M12 | $22.6M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $353,00013 | $156,00014 | $612,00015 | $483,00016 | $554,00016 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $32M9 | $33M10 | $17.4M11 | $16.8M12 | $22M12 |
| Total debt | $42.7M17 | $24.6M18 | $78.7M19 | $80.8M20 | $80.9M20 |
| Cash & equivalents | $105.8M21 | $61.6M22 | $99M23 | $122.5M24 | $130M24 |
| Diluted shares | 13.9M | 14.1M | 14.1M | 14.2M | 14.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $187.14 of net worth that earned you $14.96 and generated $15.52 of cash last year, against $56.98 of debt.
It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 89% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.5 and $20.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$17.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$17.4M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$21.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $20.97 |
| Base | 0.0% | $20.97 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $25.2 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004473 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003634 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003982 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027378 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004473 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003634 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003982 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027378 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004473 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003634 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003982 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027378 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004473 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003634 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003982 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027378 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004473 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003634 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003982 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027378 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004473 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003634 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003982 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027378 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)