MeritValue

J&J SNACK FOODS CORP

JJSFdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

J&J SNACK FOODS CORP earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $34.77 and $256.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.14B1$1.38B2$1.56B3$1.57B3$1.58B3
Net income$55.6M4$47.2M5$78.9M6$86.6M6$65.6M6
Operating cash flow$101.5M7$26.1M8$172.3M9$173.1M9$165.1M9
Capital expenditure$53.6M10$87.3M11$104.7M12$73.6M12$82.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$47.9M7−$61.2M8$67.5M9$99.5M9$82.3M9
Total debt$013$55M14$27M15$016$016
Cash & equivalents$283.2M17$35.2M18$49.6M19$73.4M20$105.9M20
Diluted shares19.1M19.2M19.3M19.4M19.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$494.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$42.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $494.52 of net worth that earned you $33.56 and generated $42.08 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 5%FY23 9%FY24 10%FY25 8%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $34.77 and $256.37 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$256.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$82.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$142.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$82.3M
Earnings Power Value
$34.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$65.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$61.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $142.6
The three cases
Bear0.0%$65.54
Base20.0%$142.6
Bull20.0%$142.6

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0001437749-23-033110 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0001437749-24-036279 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-036456 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0001437749-23-033110 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0001437749-24-036279 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-036456 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0001437749-23-033110 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0001437749-24-036279 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-036456 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0001437749-23-033110 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0001437749-24-036279 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-036456 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0001437749-22-027923 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0001437749-23-033110 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-036279 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0001437749-25-036456 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0001437749-22-027923 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0001437749-23-033110 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-036279 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0001437749-25-036456 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)