MeritValue

J.Jill, Inc.

JILLdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

J.Jill, Inc. earns about 29% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 23% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.45 and $45.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$585.2M1$618.5M2$608M3$610.9M3$596.5M3
Net income−$28.1M4$42.2M5$36.2M6$39.5M6$27.9M6
Operating cash flow$75M7$74.4M8$63.3M9$65M9$42.1M9
Capital expenditure$2.2M10$9.19M11$10.7M12$14.3M12$16.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$72.8M7$65.2M8$52.6M9$50.8M9$25.2M9
Total debt$419.6M13$417.3M14$155.9M15—$73.3M16
Cash & equivalents$36M17$87.1M18$62.2M19$35.4M19$41M19
Diluted shares12.4M14.3M14.4M15.1M15.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$79.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.18
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$47.79

10 shares is a claim on $79.2 of net worth that earned you $18.18 and generated $16.43 of cash last year, against $47.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
29% avg · 5y
FY22 -9%FY23 17%FY24 42%FY25 72%FY26 23%

It earned about 29% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+23% shares · 5y

Share count is up 23% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 83% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.45 and $45.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$41.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$50.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$45.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$50.8M
Earnings Power Value
$24.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$36.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $45.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$45.18
Base0.0%$45.18
Bull5.0%$56.63

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-041871 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-048494 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-134566 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-041871 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-048494 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-134566 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-041871 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-048494 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-134566 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-041871 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-048494 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-134566 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-010910 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-041871 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-048494 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2026-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134566 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-010910 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-048494 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-134566 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)