MeritValue

James Hardie Industries plc

JHXdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

James Hardie Industries plc earns about 12% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 22% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $8.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$3.61B1$3.78B2$3.94B3$3.88B3$4.84B3
Net income$459.1M4$512M5$510.2M6$424M6$104M6
Operating cash flow$757.2M7$607.6M8$914.2M9$802.8M9$589.8M9
Capital expenditure$257.8M10$591.3M11$449.3M12$422.2M12$383.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$499.4M7$16.3M8$464.9M9$380.6M9$205.9M9
Total debt$877.3M13$2.12B14$2.25B15$2.24B16$9.07B16
Cash & equivalents$125M17$113M18$365M19$562.7M20$269.2M20
Diluted shares445.9M445.6M439.6M432.1M545.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$117.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.77
Debt you’d be carrying
$166.27

10 shares is a claim on $117.79 of net worth that earned you $1.91 and generated $3.77 of cash last year, against $166.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY22 22%FY23 14%FY24 14%FY25 11%FY26 1%

It earned an average 12% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+22% shares · 5y

Share count is up 22% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 934% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$380.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$380.6M
Earnings Power Value
$8.72
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$459.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.1
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001159152-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001159152-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001159152-26-000045 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001159152-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001159152-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001159152-26-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001159152-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001159152-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001159152-26-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001159152-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001159152-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001159152-26-000045 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001159152-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001159152-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001159152-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001159152-26-000045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001159152-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001159152-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001159152-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001159152-26-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)