MeritValue

Global Crossing Airlines Group Inc.

JETMFdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Global Crossing Airlines Group Inc. earns about -467% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 39% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.5 and $0.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.3M1$97.1M2$160.1M3$223.8M4$246.3M4
Net income−$19.8M5−$15.8M6−$21M7−$11.5M8−$3.05M8
Operating cash flow−$10.8M9−$3.6M10−$1.38M11$8.07M12$28.1M12
Capital expenditure$652,75013$1.91M14$4.04M15$7.22M16$11.6M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$11.5M9−$5.51M10−$5.42M11$853,00012$16.5M12
Total debt—$6.89M17———
Cash & equivalents$5.24M18$1.88M19$11.6M20$12.3M21$16.7M21
Diluted shares46.2M52.1M56.8M60.4M64.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$4.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.57
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$4.61 of net worth that earned you −$0.48 and generated $2.57 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-467% avg · 5y
FY21 -467%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned about -467% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+39% shares · 5y

Share count is up 39% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.5 and $0.52 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$853,000
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$853,000
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.5
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.45
Base5.0%$0.5
Bull10.0%$0.55

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-055686 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034279 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-265739 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-055686 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034279 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-265739 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-055686 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034279 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-265739 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-055686 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034279 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-265739 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-055686 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-055686 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034279 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-265739 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)