MeritValue

Jefferies Financial Group Inc.

JEFdata completeness 100%20 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. earns about 15% on invested capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $33.31 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.14B1$4.74B2$3.23B3$4.86B3$5.55B3
Net income$1.67B4$781.7M5$262.4M6$716M6$682M6
Operating cash flow$1.58B7$1.8B7−$1.93B7−$140.5M8−$1.5B8
Capital expenditure$165.6M9$224.3M10$1.16M11$250.6M11$207.5M11
Free cash flow (derived)$1.42B7$1.58B7−$1.93B7−$391.1M8−$1.7B8
Total debt$9.35B12$9.3B13$10.7B14$14B15$17.7B15
Cash & equivalents$10.8B16$9.7B17$8.53B18$12.2B19$14B19
Diluted shares271.5M255.6M236.6M223.7M222.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$474.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.62
Free cash flow it threw off
−$76.44
Debt you’d be carrying
$792.97

10 shares is a claim on $474.74 of net worth that earned you $30.62 and generated −$76.44 of cash last year, against $792.97 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 26%FY22 17%FY23 19%FY24 6%FY25 5%

It earned an average 15% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 89% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$33.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$716M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000096223-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001628280-25-002833 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000096223-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000096223-22-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001628280-25-002833 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000096223-26-000009 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000096223-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0000096223-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000096223-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001628280-25-002833 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000096223-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000096223-23-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000096223-24-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001628280-25-002833 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0000096223-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000096223-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000096223-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001628280-25-002833 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0000096223-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)