MeritValue

Johnson Controls International plc

JCIdata completeness 100%21 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Johnson Controls International plc earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.9 and $27.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$23.7B1$20.6B2$22.3B3$23B3$23.6B3
Net income$1.64B4$1.53B5$1.85B6$1.71B6$3.29B6
Operating cash flow$2.55B7$1.24B8$1.86B9$1.57B9$2.55B9
Capital expenditure$552M10$487M11$446M12$494M12$434M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2B7$750M8$1.41B9$1.07B9$2.12B9
Total debt$8M13$669M14$8.82B15$9.52B16$9.92B16
Cash & equivalents$1.34B17$2.03B18$828M19$606M19$379M19
Diluted shares721.1M699.6M687.4M676.0M654.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$197.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$50.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.41
Debt you’d be carrying
$151.63

10 shares is a claim on $197.63 of net worth that earned you $50.31 and generated $32.41 of cash last year, against $151.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 9%FY23 5%FY24 6%FY25 8%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 123875% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.9 and $27.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.41B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.41B
Earnings Power Value
$27.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.71B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.22
Base0.0%$16.22
Bull5.0%$23.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000833444-23-000048 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000833444-24-000064 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000833444-25-000097 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000833444-23-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000833444-24-000064 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000833444-25-000097 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000833444-21-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000833444-24-000064 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000833444-25-000097 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000833444-23-000048 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000833444-24-000064 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000833444-25-000097 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000833444-22-000043 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000833444-23-000048 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000833444-24-000064 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000833444-25-000097 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000833444-23-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000833444-24-000064 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000833444-25-000097 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)