MeritValue

Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE

JCAPdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE earns about 26% on invested capital. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $42.94 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$323.1M1$433.3M1$613.3M1
Net income$111.5M2$128.9M2$188M2
Operating cash flow$120.2M3$168.2M3$268.8M3
Capital expenditure———
Free cash flow (derived)———
Total debt—$1.19B4$1.75B5
Cash & equivalents$14.4M6$35.5M6$23.2M6
Diluted shares—030.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$158.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$62.62
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$584.31

10 shares is a claim on $158.63 of net worth that earned you $62.62 last year, against $584.31 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 3y
FY23 53%FY24 13%FY25 12%

It earned an average 26% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 3y

Total debt has risen 47% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$42.94
assumptions (8)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Normalized earnings$128.9M
  • Growth assumed0.0%
Graham Number
$32.19
assumptions (1)
  • Graham multiplier (P/E × P/B)22.5×

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2026-03-13 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027199 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K filed 2026-03-13 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027199 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K filed 2026-03-13 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027199 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K filed 2026-03-13 · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027199 (NotesPayable)
  5. 10-K filed 2026-03-13 · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027199 (LongTermDebt)
  6. 10-K filed 2026-03-13 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027199 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)