MeritValue

Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE

JCAPdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE earns about 41% on invested capital. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $44.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$323.1M1$433.3M1$613.3M1
Net income$111.5M2$128.9M2$188M2
Operating cash flow$120.2M3$168.2M3$268.8M3
Capital expenditure———
Free cash flow (derived)———
Total debt——$1.75B4
Cash & equivalents$14.4M5$35.5M5$23.2M5
Diluted shares—030.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$158.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$62.62
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$584.31

10 shares is a claim on $158.63 of net worth that earned you $62.62 last year, against $584.31 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
41% avg · 3y
FY23 53%FY24 57%FY25 12%

It earned an average 41% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 3y

Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$44.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$128.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.87
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027199 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027199 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027199 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027199 (LongTermDebt)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027199 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)