MeritValue

JBT MAREL Corp

JBTMdata completeness 100%20 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

JBT MAREL Corp earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 62% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $23.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.4B1$1.59B2$1.66B3$1.72B3$3.8B3
Net income$119.1M4$137.4M5$582.6M6$85.4M6−$50.5M6
Operating cash flow$225.7M7$142.3M7$74.2M8$232.6M8$341.7M8
Capital expenditure$51.7M9$84.6M10$55.1M11$37.9M11$103.6M11
Free cash flow (derived)$174M7$57.7M7$19.1M8$194.7M8$238.1M8
Total debt$1.35B12$1.96B13$1.29B14$2.5B15$3.76B15
Cash & equivalents$78.8M16$71.7M17$483.3M18$1.23B18$167.9M18
Diluted shares32.1M32.1M32.1M32.2M52.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$858.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$45.79
Debt you’d be carrying
$723.81

10 shares is a claim on $858.42 of net worth that earned you −$9.71 and generated $45.79 of cash last year, against $723.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 4%FY23 7%FY24 4%FY25 1%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+62% shares · 5y

Share count is up 62% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 179% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.8%
  • fcfBase$194.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.8%
  • fcfBase$194.7M
Earnings Power Value
$23.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$119.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001433660-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001433660-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001433660-26-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001433660-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001433660-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001433660-26-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001433660-23-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001433660-26-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001433660-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001433660-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001433660-26-000053 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001433660-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001433660-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001433660-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001433660-26-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001433660-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001433660-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001433660-26-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)