MeritValue

SANFILIPPO JOHN B & SON INC

JBSSdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

SANFILIPPO JOHN B & SON INC earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.35 and $53.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$955.9M1$999.7M2$1.07B3$1.11B3$1.18B3
Net income$61.8M4$62.9M5$60.2M6$58.9M6$61.9M6
Operating cash flow$19.6M7$124.7M8$101.7M9$30.5M9$123.8M9
Capital expenditure$17.8M10$20.7M11$28.3M12$50.7M12$88.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.85M7$103.9M8$73.4M9−$20.2M9$35.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$415,00013$1.95M14$484,00015$585,00016$1.15M16
Diluted shares11.6M11.6M11.7M11.7M11.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$322.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$52.59
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.35
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $322.61 of net worth that earned you $52.59 and generated $30.35 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY22 23%FY23 22%FY24 19%FY25 16%FY26 16%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.35 and $53.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$39.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$35.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$42.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$35.7M
Earnings Power Value
$53.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$61.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$61.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.08%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $42.52
The three cases
Bear0.0%$42.52
Base0.0%$42.52
Bull5.0%$52.76

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-099489 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-29 · accession 0000950170-25-110463 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-27 · accession 0001193125-26-356919 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-099489 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-29 · accession 0000950170-25-110463 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-27 · accession 0001193125-26-356919 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-099489 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-29 · accession 0000950170-25-110463 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-27 · accession 0001193125-26-356919 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-099489 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-29 · accession 0000950170-25-110463 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-27 · accession 0001193125-26-356919 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-044160 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-29 · accession 0000950170-24-099489 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-27 · accession 0000950170-25-110463 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-26 · accession 0001193125-26-356919 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)