MeritValue

SANFILIPPO JOHN B & SON INC

JBSSdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SANFILIPPO JOHN B & SON INC earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $53.25 and $251.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$858.5M1$955.9M2$999.7M3$1.07B3$1.11B3
Net income$59.7M4$61.8M5$62.9M6$60.2M6$58.9M6
Operating cash flow$104.7M7$19.6M8$124.7M9$101.7M9$30.5M9
Capital expenditure$25.2M10$17.8M11$20.7M12$28.3M12$50.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$79.5M7$1.85M8$103.9M9$73.4M9−$20.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$672,00013$415,00014$1.95M15$484,00016$585,00016
Diluted shares11.6M11.6M11.6M11.7M11.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$307.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$50.27
Free cash flow it threw off
−$17.2
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $307.65 of net worth that earned you $50.27 and generated −$17.2 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 23%FY23 22%FY24 19%FY25 16%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $53.25 and $251.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$251.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.7%
  • fcfBase$73.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$165.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.7%
  • fcfBase$73.4M
Earnings Power Value
$53.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$60.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$59.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $165.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$89.45
Base14.7%$165.88
Bull19.7%$201.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-24 · accession 0000950170-23-044160 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-099489 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-29 · accession 0000950170-25-110463 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-24 · accession 0000950170-23-044160 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-099489 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-29 · accession 0000950170-25-110463 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-24 · accession 0000950170-23-044160 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-099489 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-29 · accession 0000950170-25-110463 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-24 · accession 0000950170-23-044160 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-099489 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-29 · accession 0000950170-25-110463 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-24 · accession 0001193125-22-228530 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-044160 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-29 · accession 0000950170-24-099489 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-27 · accession 0000950170-25-110463 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)