MeritValue

JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP

JBLUdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP earns about -97% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.04B1$9.16B2$9.62B3$9.28B3$9.06B3
Net income−$182M4−$362M5−$310M6−$795M6−$602M6
Operating cash flow$1.64B7$379M8$400M9$144M9−$94M9
Capital expenditure$907M10$767M11$1.13B12$1.48B12$1.08B12
Free cash flow (derived)$735M7−$388M8−$728M9−$1.33B9−$1.17B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.02B13$1.04B14$1.17B15$1.92B15$1.95B15
Diluted shares318.0M323.6M332.9M346.0M362.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$58.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.63
Free cash flow it threw off
−$32.37
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $58.55 of net worth that earned you −$16.63 and generated −$32.37 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-97% avg · 5y
FY21 -11%FY22 -13%FY23 -12%FY24 -98%FY25 -351%

It earned an average -97% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001158463-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001158463-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001158463-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001158463-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001158463-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001158463-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001158463-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001158463-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001158463-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001158463-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001158463-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001158463-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001158463-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001158463-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001158463-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)