MeritValue

JABIL INC

JBLdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

JABIL INC earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 27% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $76.44 and $466.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$29.3B1$33.5B2$34.7B3$28.9B3$29.8B3
Net income$696M4$996M5$818M6$1.39B6$657M6
Operating cash flow$1.43B7$1.65B8$1.73B9$1.72B9$1.64B9
Capital expenditure$1.16B10$1.39B11$1.03B12$784M12$468M12
Free cash flow (derived)$274M7$266M8$704M9$932M9$1.17B9
Total debt$5.76B13$5.75B14$5.75B15$5.76B16$5.77B16
Cash & equivalents$1.57B17$1.48B18$1.8B19$2.2B20$1.93B20
Diluted shares152.1M144.4M135.9M124.3M110.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$136.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$59.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$105.68
Debt you’d be carrying
$520.29

10 shares is a claim on $136.43 of net worth that earned you $59.24 and generated $105.68 of cash last year, against $520.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 17%FY23 10%FY24 26%FY25 12%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−27% shares · 5y

Share count is down 27% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $76.44 and $466.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$466.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$932M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$239.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$932M
Earnings Power Value
$76.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$818M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$42.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $239.4
The three cases
Bear0.0%$85.48
Base20.0%$239.4
Bull20.0%$239.4

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001193125-23-259599 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001628280-24-043960 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001628280-25-045293 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001193125-23-259599 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001628280-24-043960 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001628280-25-045293 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001193125-23-259599 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001628280-24-043960 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001628280-25-045293 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001193125-23-259599 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001628280-24-043960 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001628280-25-045293 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001193125-22-268383 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001193125-23-259599 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001628280-24-043960 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001628280-25-045293 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001193125-22-268383 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001193125-23-259599 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001628280-24-043960 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001628280-25-045293 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)