MeritValue

Jade Biosciences, Inc.

JBIOdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Jade Biosciences, Inc. earns about -41% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 155% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$23M1−$51.5M2−$75.5M3−$69.6M3−$127.4M4
Operating cash flow−$27.4M5−$39.1M6−$56.8M7−$71.2M7−$94.7M8
Capital expenditure$181,0009$195,00010$142,00011—$196,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$27.6M5−$39.3M6−$56.9M7—−$94.9M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$54.2M13$22.4M14$23.5M15$69.4M16$88.4M16
Diluted shares12.3M24.5M26.3M28.6M31.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$106.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$40.63
Free cash flow it threw off
−$30.26
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $106.03 of net worth that earned you −$40.63 and generated −$30.26 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-41% avg · 5y
FY21 -15%FY22 -39%FY23 -69%FY24 —FY25 -41%

It earned an average -41% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+155% shares · 5y

Share count is up 155% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001798749-23-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001798749-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003750 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096550 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001798749-23-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001798749-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003750 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096550 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001798749-23-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001798749-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003750 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096550 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001798749-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001798749-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003750 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096550 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)