MeritValue

Janus International Group, Inc.

JBIdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Janus International Group, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 28% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.22 and $50.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$750.1M1$1.02B2$1.07B3$963.8M3$884.2M3
Net income$43.8M4$107.7M5$135.7M6$70.4M6$53.8M6
Operating cash flow$74.8M7$88.5M8$215M9$154M9$139.5M9
Capital expenditure$19.9M10$8.8M11$19M12$20.1M12$25.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$54.9M7$79.7M8$196M9$133.9M9$114M9
Total debt$711.8M13$708.2M14$615M15$592M16$545.7M16
Cash & equivalents$13.2M17$78.4M18$171.7M18$149.3M18$194.4M18
Diluted shares109.0M146.7M146.9M144.8M139.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$40.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.16
Debt you’d be carrying
$39.05

10 shares is a claim on $40.97 of net worth that earned you $3.85 and generated $8.16 of cash last year, against $39.05 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY22 7%FY22 14%FY23 19%FY24 7%FY26 6%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+28% shares · 5y

Share count is up 28% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 23% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.22 and $50.07 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$50.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth18.9%
  • fcfBase$133.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth18.9%
  • fcfBase$133.9M
Earnings Power Value
$5.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$70.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5.92
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years18.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.4
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.18
Base18.9%$27.4
Bull20.0%$28.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 18.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001839839-24-000066 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839839-25-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001839839-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001839839-24-000066 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839839-25-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001839839-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001839839-24-000066 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839839-25-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001839839-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001839839-24-000066 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839839-25-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001839839-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001839839-23-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839839-24-000066 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001839839-25-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001839839-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001839839-22-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839839-26-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)