MeritValue

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc

JAZZdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $386.13 and $632.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.09B1$3.66B2$3.83B3$4.07B3$4.27B3
Net income−$329.7M4−$224.1M5$414.8M6$560.1M6−$356.1M6
Operating cash flow$778.5M7$1.27B8$1.09B9$1.4B9$1.36B9
Capital expenditure$27.6M10$29M11$24M12$38.1M12$58.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$750.9M7$1.24B8$1.07B9$1.36B9$1.3B9
Total debt$12.1B13$11.4B14$11.4B15$12.2B16$10.7B16
Cash & equivalents$591.4M17$881.5M18$1.51B19$2.41B20$1.39B20
Diluted shares59.7M62.5M72.1M66.0M61.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$708.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$58.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$212.69
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,757.35

10 shares is a claim on $708.19 of net worth that earned you −$58.4 and generated $212.69 of cash last year, against $1,757.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 -2%FY23 2%FY24 3%FY25 -4%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 11% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $386.13 and $632.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$632.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.6%
  • fcfBase$1.3B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$386.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.6%
  • fcfBase$1.3B
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $386.13
The three cases
Bear0.0%$150.98
Base13.6%$386.13
Bull18.6%$504.04

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001232524-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001232524-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001232524-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001232524-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001232524-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001232524-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001232524-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001232524-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001232524-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001232524-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001232524-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001232524-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001232524-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001232524-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001232524-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001232524-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001232524-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001232524-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001232524-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001232524-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)