MeritValue

JAKKS PACIFIC INC

JAKKdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

JAKKS PACIFIC INC earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 53% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $30.59 and $38.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$621.1M1$796.2M2$711.6M3$691M3$570.7M3
Net income−$6.01M4$91.4M5$38.4M6$33.9M6$9.87M6
Operating cash flow−$5.88M7$86.1M8$66.4M9$38.9M9$8.49M9
Capital expenditure$8.22M10$10.4M11$8.91M12$11.2M12$9.56M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$14.1M7$75.7M8$57.5M9$27.7M9−$1.07M9
Total debt$100.6M13$94.4M14$015——
Cash & equivalents$44.5M16$85.3M17$72.4M18$69.9M19$52.2M19
Diluted shares7.5M10.2M10.6M11.2M11.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$216.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.59
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.93
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $216.78 of net worth that earned you $8.59 and generated −$0.93 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 40%FY23 37%FY24 21%FY25 5%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+53% shares · 5y

Share count is up 53% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $30.59 and $38.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$36.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$27.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$38.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$27.7M
Earnings Power Value
$30.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$33.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.48
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $38.99
The three cases
Bear0.0%$38.99
Base0.0%$38.99
Bull5.0%$47.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000243 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000170 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-000723 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000243 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000170 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-000723 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000243 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000170 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-000723 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000243 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000170 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-000723 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-22-000288 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000342 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000243 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000342 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000243 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000170 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-000723 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)