MeritValue

Jaguar Health, Inc.

JAGXdata completeness 75%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Jaguar Health, Inc. earns about -198% on equity, but has diluted owners by 291% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.34M1$12M1$9.76M2$11.7M3$11.5M3
Net income−$52,6004−$48,4004−$41,9004−$38.5M5−$53.6M5
Operating cash flow−$35M6−$33.1M7−$33.2M8−$29.4M9−$23.7M9
Capital expenditure$6,00010$77,00011—$16,00012—
Free cash flow (derived)−$35M6−$33.2M7—−$29.4M9—
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$17.1M13$5.47M14$6.47M15$8M16$968,00016
Diluted shares596,1541.3M15,421294,5342.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$80.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$229.7
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$80.12 of net worth that earned you −$229.7 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-198% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 —FY23 -1%FY24 -593%FY25 —

It earned an average -198% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+291% shares · 5y

Share count is up 291% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004572 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047184 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-144470 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-081480 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-144470 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004572 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004439 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047184 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-144470 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004572 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004439 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-144470 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004572 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004439 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047184 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-144470 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)