JACK IN THE BOX INC

JACKdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $51.4 and $62.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.14B1$1.47B2$1.69B3$1.57B3$1.47B3
Net income$165.8M4$115.8M5$130.8M6−$36.7M6−$80.7M6
Operating cash flow$201.1M7$162.9M8$215M9$68.8M9$162.4M9
Capital expenditure$41M10$46.5M11$60M12$91.2M12$88.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$160.1M7$116.4M8$155M9−$22.4M9$74.1M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents
Diluted shares22.5M21.2M20.8M19.6M19.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$492.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$42.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$38.91
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on −$492.43 of net worth that earned you −$42.36 and generated $38.91 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $51.4 and $62.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$51.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$74.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$55.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$74.1M
Earnings Power Value
$62.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$115.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $55.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$55.59
Base0.0%$55.59
Bull5.0%$69.05

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000807882-23-000020 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000807882-24-000052 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000807882-25-000072 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000807882-23-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000807882-24-000052 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000807882-25-000072 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000807882-23-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000807882-24-000052 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000807882-25-000072 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000807882-23-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000807882-24-000052 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000807882-25-000072 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)