MeritValue

ORIX CORP

IXdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

ORIX CORP earns about 5% on equity, but has diluted owners by 968% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2010FY 2011FY 2012
Revenue$10B1$11.7B2$11.8B3
Net income$406M4$809M5$1.05B6
Operating cash flow$2.25B7$2.55B8$4.05B9
Capital expenditure———
Free cash flow (derived)———
Total debt$47.4B10$60.3B11$57.5B12
Cash & equivalents$7.69B13$8.91B14$9.57B14
Diluted shares123.7M1.32B1.32B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$128.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.94
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$435.42

10 shares is a claim on $128.65 of net worth that earned you $7.94 last year, against $435.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
5% avg · 3y
FY10 3%FY11 5%FY12 6%

It earned an average 5% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+968% shares · 3y

Share count is up 968% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 21% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$6.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$809M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$48.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-149108 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-172757 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2012-03-31 · accession 0001193125-12-284534 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-149108 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-172757 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2012-03-31 · accession 0001193125-12-284534 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-149108 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-172757 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2012-03-31 · accession 0001193125-12-284534 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-149108 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-172757 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2012-03-31 · accession 0001193125-12-284534 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-172757 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-12-284534 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)