MeritValue

Invesco Ltd.

IVZdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Invesco Ltd. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.25 and $48.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.89B1$6.05B2$5.72B3$6.07B3$6.38B3
Net income$1.39B4$683.9M5−$333.7M5$538M5−$174.8M6
Operating cash flow$1.08B7$703.2M8$1.3B9$1.19B9$1.53B9
Capital expenditure$108.8M10$192.9M11$164.3M12$69.1M12$84.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$969.3M7$510.3M8$1.14B9$1.12B9$1.44B9
Total debt$2.09B13$1.49B14$1.49B15$890.6M16$1.83B16
Cash & equivalents$1.9B17$1.23B18$1.47B19$986.5M19$1.04B19
Diluted shares465.4M459.5M456.2M457.7M455.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$268.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$40.11

10 shares is a claim on $268.81 of net worth that earned you −$3.84 and generated $31.67 of cash last year, against $40.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 6%FY23 -1%FY24 5%FY25 -2%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 12% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.25 and $48.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$48.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.4%
  • fcfBase$1.14B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$43.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.4%
  • fcfBase$1.14B
Earnings Power Value
$12.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$538M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $43.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$33.96
Base5.4%$43.45
Bull10.4%$53.95

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000914208-24-000219 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000914208-25-000114 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000914208-26-000079 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000914208-24-000219 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000914208-25-000114 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000914208-26-000079 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000914208-24-000219 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000914208-25-000114 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000914208-26-000079 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000914208-24-000219 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000914208-25-000114 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000914208-26-000079 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000914208-23-000297 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000914208-24-000219 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000914208-25-000114 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000914208-26-000079 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000914208-24-000219 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000914208-25-000114 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000914208-26-000079 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)