MeritValue

Invivyd, Inc.

IVVDdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Invivyd, Inc. earns about -99% on equity, but has diluted owners by 304% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$01$25.4M2$53.4M2
Net income−$226.8M3−$241.3M4−$198.6M5−$169.9M6−$52.5M6
Operating cash flow−$184.7M7−$220M8−$173.2M9−$170.5M10−$58.1M10
Capital expenditure$84,00011$1.71M12$615,00013$140,00014$155,00014
Free cash flow (derived)−$184.8M7−$221.7M8−$173.8M9−$170.6M10−$58.3M10
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$542.2M15$92.1M16$200.6M17$69.3M18$226.7M18
Diluted shares42.6M108.3M109.5M118.6M172.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$14.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.05
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.38
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $14.03 of net worth that earned you −$3.05 and generated −$3.38 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-99% avg · 5y
FY21 -41%FY22 -68%FY23 -112%FY24 -252%FY25 -22%

It earned an average -99% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+304% shares · 5y

Share count is up 304% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042332 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092547 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009516 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037610 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042332 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092547 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009516 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037610 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042332 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092547 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009516 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037610 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042332 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092547 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009516 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037610 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042332 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092547 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)