MeritValue

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.

IVRdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. earns about -8% on equity, but has diluted owners by 143% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$169.2M1$194.5M2$277.9M3$286.5M3$295.3M3
Net income−$90M4−$402.9M5−$15.9M6$59.9M6$101.3M6
Operating cash flow$152.3M7$196.1M8$237.8M9$183.2M9$157.1M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$357.1M10$175.5M11$77M12$73.4M13$56M13
Diluted shares27.5M34.2M44.1M53.8M66.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$119.24
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.14
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $119.24 of net worth that earned you $15.14 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-8% avg · 5y
FY21 -6%FY22 -50%FY23 -2%FY24 8%FY25 13%

It earned an average -8% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+143% shares · 5y

Share count is up 143% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$18.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437071-24-000005 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437071-25-000007 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437071-26-000015 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437071-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437071-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437071-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437071-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437071-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437071-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437071-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437071-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437071-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437071-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)