MeritValue

ITT INC.

ITTdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ITT INC. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $53.46 and $332.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.77B1$2.99B2$3.28B3$3.63B3$3.94B3
Net income$316.3M4$367M5$412.2M6$519.9M6$488M6
Operating cash flow−$8.4M7$277.7M8$538M9$562.6M9$668.8M9
Capital expenditure$88.4M10$103.9M11$107.6M12$123.9M12$121.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$96.8M7$173.8M8$430.4M9$438.7M9$547.5M9
Total debt$602.7M13$1.36B14$568.3M15$1.51B16$1.3B16
Cash & equivalents$647.5M17$561.2M18$489.2M19$439.3M20$1.74B20
Diluted shares86.5M83.7M82.7M82.3M79.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$511.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$61.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$68.52
Debt you’d be carrying
$163.32

10 shares is a claim on $511.19 of net worth that earned you $61.08 and generated $68.52 of cash last year, against $163.32 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 12%FY23 16%FY24 14%FY25 13%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 117% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $53.46 and $332.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$332.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$438.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$184.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$438.7M
Earnings Power Value
$53.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$412.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$83.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $184.5
The three cases
Bear0.0%$83.93
Base20.0%$184.5
Bull20.0%$184.5

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000216228-24-000020 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000216228-25-000014 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000216228-26-000012 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000216228-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000216228-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000216228-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000216228-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000216228-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000216228-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000216228-24-000020 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000216228-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000216228-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000216228-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000216228-24-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000216228-25-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000216228-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000216228-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000216228-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000216228-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000216228-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)