MeritValue

ITRON, INC.

ITRIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ITRON, INC. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.68 and $235.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.98B1$1.8B2$2.17B3$2.44B3$2.37B3
Net income−$81.3M4−$9.73M5$96.9M6$239.1M6$301.1M6
Operating cash flow$154.8M7$24.5M8$125M9$238.2M9$406M9
Capital expenditure$34.7M10$19.7M11$26.9M12$30.6M12$22.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$120.1M7$4.75M8$98.1M9$207.6M9$383.1M9
Total debt$910.2M13$912.5M14$914.8M15$2.51B16$2.51B16
Cash & equivalents$162.6M17$202M18$302M19$1.05B20$1.02B20
Diluted shares44.3M45.1M45.8M46.2M46.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$370.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$64.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$82.69
Debt you’d be carrying
$542.57

10 shares is a claim on $370.57 of net worth that earned you $64.99 and generated $82.69 of cash last year, against $542.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 -0%FY23 5%FY24 8%FY25 9%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 176% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.68 and $235.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$235.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$207.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$113.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$207.6M
Earnings Power Value
$21.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$96.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$73.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $113.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$31.81
Base20.0%$113.9
Bull20.0%$113.9

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000780571-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000780571-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000780571-26-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000780571-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000780571-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000780571-26-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000780571-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000780571-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000780571-26-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000780571-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000780571-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000780571-26-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000780571-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000780571-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000780571-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000780571-26-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000780571-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000780571-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000780571-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000780571-26-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)