MeritValue

IT TECH PACKAGING, INC.

ITPdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

IT TECH PACKAGING, INC. earns about -3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 62% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.84 and $10.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$100.9M1$160.9M2$100.4M3$86.5M4$75.8M4
Net income−$5.55M5$905,5356−$16.6M7−$9.95M8−$9.84M8
Operating cash flow$16.1M9−$2.44M10$10.7M11$12.9M12$6.3M12
Capital expenditure$21.1M13$25.1M14$4.53M14$22.3M15$329,61115
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.96M9−$27.5M10$6.19M11−$9.42M12$5.97M12
Total debt$16M16$15.8M17$23.7M18$23.2M19$13.8M19
Cash & equivalents$4.14M20$11.2M21$9.52M22$4.39M22$6.95M22
Diluted shares26.5M9.1M10.0M10.1M10.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$155.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.78
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$13.71

10 shares is a claim on $155.03 of net worth that earned you −$9.78 and generated $5.93 of cash last year, against $13.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY20 -2%FY21 —FY22 -2%FY23 -4%FY24 -4%

It earned about -3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−62% shares · 5y

Share count is down 62% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 14% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.84 and $10.74 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$10.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$5.97M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$5.97M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.79
Base5.0%$9.84
Bull10.0%$12.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-012344 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-022564 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026607 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031072 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-012344 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-022564 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026607 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031072 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-012344 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-022564 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026607 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031072 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-012344 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-022564 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031072 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-21-022128 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-012344 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026607 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031072 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-022564 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026607 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031072 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)