MeritValue

GARTNER INC

ITdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GARTNER INC earns about 51% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $110.72 and $300.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.73B1$5.48B2$5.91B3$6.27B3$6.5B3
Net income$793.6M4$807.8M5$882.5M6$1.25B6$729.2M6
Operating cash flow$1.31B7$1.1B8$1.16B9$1.48B9$1.29B9
Capital expenditure$59.8M10$108.1M11$103.1M12$101.7M12$115.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.25B7$993.4M8$1.05B9$1.38B9$1.18B9
Total debt$2.46B13$2.46B14$2.46B15$2.46B16$2.98B16
Cash & equivalents$756.5M17$698M18$1.32B18$1.93B18$1.72B18
Diluted shares86.2M81.1M79.7M78.3M75.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$42.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$96.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$155.44
Debt you’d be carrying
$394.38

10 shares is a claim on $42.31 of net worth that earned you $96.45 and generated $155.44 of cash last year, against $394.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
51% avg · 5y
FY21 43%FY22 46%FY23 54%FY24 66%FY25 46%

It earned about 51% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 21% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $110.72 and $300.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$300.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.8%
  • fcfBase$1.18B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$268.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.8%
  • fcfBase$1.18B
Earnings Power Value
$110.72
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$807.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $268.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%$205.44
Base5.8%$268.3
Bull10.8%$334.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000749251-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000749251-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000749251-26-000112 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000749251-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000749251-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000749251-26-000112 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000749251-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000749251-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000749251-26-000112 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000749251-24-000006 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000749251-25-000008 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000749251-26-000112 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000749251-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000749251-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000749251-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000749251-26-000112 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000749251-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000749251-26-000112 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)