MeritValue

INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC

ISRGdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $51.37 and $75.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.71B1$6.22B2$7.12B3$8.35B3$10.1B3
Net income$1.7B4$1.32B5$1.8B6$2.32B6$2.86B6
Operating cash flow$2.09B7$1.49B8$1.81B9$2.42B9$3.03B9
Capital expenditure$339.5M10$532.4M11$1.06B12$1.11B12$539.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.75B7$958.4M8$749.6M9$1.3B9$2.49B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.29B13$1.58B14$2.75B15$2.03B16$3.37B16
Diluted shares365.8M362.0M357.4M362.0M362.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$491.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$78.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$68.67
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $491.43 of net worth that earned you $78.74 and generated $68.67 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 14%FY23 17%FY24 16%FY25 20%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $51.37 and $75.8 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$75.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.5%
  • fcfBase$1.3B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$71.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.5%
  • fcfBase$1.3B
Earnings Power Value
$51.37
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.8B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$93.28
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $71.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$60.65
Base4.5%$71.67
Bull9.5%$86.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035267-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035267-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001035267-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035267-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035267-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001035267-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035267-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035267-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001035267-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035267-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035267-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001035267-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035267-23-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035267-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001035267-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001035267-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)