MeritValue

ISABELLA BANK CORP

ISBAdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ISABELLA BANK CORP earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $26.53 and $42.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$60.1M1$65.8M2$79.6M3$90M3$96M3
Net income$19.5M4$22.2M5$18.2M6$13.9M6$18.9M6
Operating cash flow$25.5M7$26.9M8$24.2M9$19.6M9$26.8M9
Capital expenditure$1.59M10$3.21M11$4.06M12$2.11M12$3.48M12
Free cash flow (derived)$23.9M7$23.7M8$20.1M9$17.5M9$23.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$105.3M13$38.9M14$33.7M15$24.5M16$26M16
Diluted shares8.0M7.6M7.6M7.5M7.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$313.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.6
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.6
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $313.3 of net worth that earned you $25.6 and generated $31.6 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 18%FY23 21%FY24 33%FY25 33%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $26.53 and $42.44 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$39.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$20.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$42.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$20.1M
Earnings Power Value
$26.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$18.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$42.48
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $42.44
The three cases
Bear0.0%$42.44
Base0.0%$42.44
Bull5.0%$51.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842517-24-000048 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842517-25-000053 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842517-26-000069 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842517-24-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842517-25-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842517-26-000069 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842517-24-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842517-25-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842517-26-000069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842517-24-000048 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842517-25-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842517-26-000069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842517-23-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842517-24-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842517-25-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000842517-26-000069 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)