MeritValue

IRONWOOD PHARMACEUTICALS INC

IRWDdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

IRONWOOD PHARMACEUTICALS INC earns about 57% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.53 and $12.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$413.8M1$410.6M2$442.7M2$351.4M3$296.2M3
Net income$528.4M4$175.1M5−$1B5$880,0006$24M6
Operating cash flow$261.9M7$273.8M8$183.4M8$103.5M9$127M9
Capital expenditure$265,00010$136,00011$273,00011$142,00012$34,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$261.6M7$273.6M8$183.2M8$103.4M9$127M9
Total debt$454.2M13$396.3M14———
Cash & equivalents$620.1M15$656.2M16$92.2M16$88.6M17$215.5M17
Diluted shares164.4M186.3M155.4M160.1M163.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$16.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.79
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$16.07 of net worth that earned you $1.47 and generated $7.79 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
57% avg · 5y
FY21 87%FY22 27%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned about 57% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.53 and $12.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$127M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$127M
Earnings Power Value
$1.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$24M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.46
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.46
Base0.0%$12.46
Bull5.0%$15.15

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001275 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004072 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020489 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001275 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004072 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020489 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001275 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004072 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020489 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001275 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004072 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020489 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-001368 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001462 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001275 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004072 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020489 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)