MeritValue

Disc Medicine, Inc.

IRONdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'

The thesis, from the filings

Disc Medicine, Inc. earns about -25% on equity, but has diluted owners by 3918% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$36M1−$46.8M2−$76.4M3−$109.4M3−$212.2M3
Operating cash flow−$27.5M4−$42.3M5−$73.5M6−$93.9M6−$180.4M6
Capital expenditure$68,0007$151,0008$89,0009$505,0009$933,0009
Free cash flow (derived)−$27.6M4−$42.4M5−$73.6M6−$94.4M6−$181.3M6
Total debt——$010$28.3M11$29.2M11
Cash & equivalents$88M12$194.6M13$360.4M14$192.4M15$91.1M15
Diluted shares878,4071.0M22.3M27.6M35.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$209.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$60.12
Free cash flow it threw off
−$51.37
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.26

10 shares is a claim on $209.61 of net worth that earned you −$60.12 and generated −$51.37 of cash last year, against $8.26 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-25% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -27%FY23 -22%FY24 -25%FY25 -29%

It earned an average -25% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3918% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3918% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011139 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034432 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073602 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011139 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034432 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073602 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011139 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034432 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073602 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028390 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073602 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011139 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034432 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028390 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073602 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)