MeritValue

Iridium Communications Inc.

IRDMdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Iridium Communications Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.48 and $37.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$614.5M1$721M2$790.7M3$830.7M3$871.7M3
Net income−$9.32M4$8.72M5$15.4M6$112.8M6$114.4M6
Operating cash flow$302.9M7$344.7M8$314.9M9$376M9$400.1M9
Capital expenditure$42.1M10$71.3M11$73.5M12$69.9M12$100.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$260.7M7$273.5M8$241.4M9$306.1M9$299.8M9
Total debt$1.6B13$1.5B14$1.5B15$1.82B16$1.76B17
Cash & equivalents$320.9M18$168.8M19$71.9M20$93.5M21$96.5M21
Diluted shares133.5M130.1M127.2M119.8M107.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$42.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.61
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$163.57

10 shares is a claim on $42.9 of net worth that earned you $10.61 and generated $27.8 of cash last year, against $163.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 -2%FY23 0%FY24 5%FY25 6%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 10% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.48 and $37.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$37.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.8%
  • fcfBase$299.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$33.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.8%
  • fcfBase$299.8M
Earnings Power Value
$1.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$15.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$10.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $33.38
The three cases
Bear0.0%$24.26
Base4.8%$33.38
Bull9.8%$44.79

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001418819-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005302 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001418819-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001418819-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005302 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001418819-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001418819-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005302 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001418819-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001418819-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005302 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001418819-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001418819-22-000005 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001418819-23-000010 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001418819-24-000008 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005302 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001418819-26-000009 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001418819-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001418819-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005302 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001418819-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)