MeritValue

Opus Genetics, Inc.

IRDdata completeness 88%24 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Opus Genetics, Inc. earns about -283% on equity, but has diluted owners by 319% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$589,0001$39.9M2$19M3$11M4$14.2M4
Net income−$56.7M5$17.9M6−$9.99M7−$57.5M8−$49.6M8
Operating cash flow−$19.4M9$14.3M10−$1.11M11−$25.6M12−$35.3M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$538,00013$013—$014$1.13M14
Cash & equivalents$24.5M15$42.6M16$50.5M17$30.3M18$45.1M18
Diluted shares14.9M20.6M21.6M26.7M62.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.97
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.18

10 shares is a claim on $2.47 of net worth that earned you −$7.97 last year, against $0.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-283% avg · 5y
FY21 -255%FY22 39%FY23 -20%FY24 -856%FY25 -323%

It earned an average -283% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+319% shares · 5y

Share count is up 319% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 110% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-014868 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-012399 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-011410 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009247 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-014868 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-012399 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-011410 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009247 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-014868 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-012399 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-011410 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009247 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-014868 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009247 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-014868 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-012399 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-011410 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009247 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)