MeritValue

Ingersoll Rand Inc.

IRdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ingersoll Rand Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.63 and $156.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.15B1$5.92B2$6.88B3$7.24B3$7.65B3
Net income$562.5M4$604.7M5$778.7M6$838.6M6$581.4M6
Operating cash flow$627.8M7$865.4M8$1.38B9$1.4B9$1.36B9
Capital expenditure$64.1M10$94.6M11$105.4M12$149.1M12$135.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$563.7M7$770.8M8$1.27B9$1.25B9$1.22B9
Total debt$2.82B13$41M14$31.6M15$4.8M16$1.4M16
Cash & equivalents$2.11B17$1.61B18$1.6B19$1.54B20$1.25B20
Diluted shares421.2M410.2M409.0M407.2M401.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$251.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.5
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.03

10 shares is a claim on $251.62 of net worth that earned you $14.5 and generated $30.43 of cash last year, against $0.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 9%FY23 11%FY24 10%FY25 8%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.63 and $156.14 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$156.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.4%
  • fcfBase$1.25B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$94.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.4%
  • fcfBase$1.25B
Earnings Power Value
$15.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$604.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$28.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $94.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$47.56
Base17.4%$94.84
Bull20.0%$104.55

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006642 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006391 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008617 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006642 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006391 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008617 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006642 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006391 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008617 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006642 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006391 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008617 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-003991 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006642 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006391 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008617 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004287 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006642 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006391 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008617 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)