MeritValue

IQVIA HOLDINGS INC.

IQVdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

IQVIA HOLDINGS INC. earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $81.11 and $227.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.9B1$14.4B2$15B3$15.4B3$16.3B3
Net income$966M4$1.09B5$1.36B6$1.37B6$1.36B6
Operating cash flow$2.94B7$2.26B8$2.15B9$2.72B9$2.65B9
Capital expenditure$640M10$674M11$649M12$602M12$603M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.3B7$1.59B8$1.5B9$2.11B9$2.05B9
Total debt$12.1B13$12.7B14$13.7B15$14B16$15.7B16
Cash & equivalents$1.37B17$1.22B18$1.38B19$1.7B20$1.98B20
Diluted shares195.0M190.6M186.3M183.4M173.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$374.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$78.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$118.21
Debt you’d be carrying
$906.28

10 shares is a claim on $374.81 of net worth that earned you $78.39 and generated $118.21 of cash last year, against $906.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 8%FY23 11%FY24 10%FY25 10%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 30% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $81.11 and $227.8 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$227.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.9%
  • fcfBase$2.05B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$168.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.9%
  • fcfBase$2.05B
Earnings Power Value
$81.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.36B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$81.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $168.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$89.68
Base8.9%$168.47
Bull13.9%$224.55

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001478242-24-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001478242-25-000045 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008322 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001478242-24-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001478242-25-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008322 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001478242-24-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001478242-25-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008322 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001478242-24-000038 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001478242-25-000045 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008322 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001478242-23-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001478242-24-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001478242-25-000045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008322 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001478242-23-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001478242-24-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001478242-25-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008322 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)