MeritValue

Ideal Power Inc.

IPWRdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Ideal Power Inc. earns about -70% on equity, but has diluted owners by 54% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$576,3991$203,2692$198,8713$86,0324$37,7284
Net income−$4.77M5−$7.19M6−$9.95M7−$10.4M8−$10.6M8
Operating cash flow−$4.28M9−$6.38M10−$7.13M11−$8.74M12−$9.14M12
Capital expenditure$44,26713$182,65114$240,82515$197,26616$119,48116
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.33M9−$6.57M10−$7.37M11−$8.94M12−$9.25M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$23.2M17$16.3M18$8.47M19$15.8M20$6.13M20
Diluted shares5.9M6.2M6.2M8.2M9.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.58
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.13
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $8.62 of net worth that earned you −$11.58 and generated −$10.13 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-70% avg · 5y
FY21 -20%FY22 -40%FY23 -99%FY24 -58%FY25 -134%

It earned an average -70% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+54% shares · 5y

Share count is up 54% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-039133 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010360 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009911 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009995 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-039133 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010360 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009911 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009995 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-039133 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010360 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009911 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009995 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-039133 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010360 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009911 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009995 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-039133 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010360 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009911 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009995 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)