MeritValue

iPower Inc.

IPWdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

iPower Inc. earns about -16% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 49% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.54 and $3.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$54.1M1$79.4M2$88.9M3$86.1M3$66.1M4
Net income−$775,7495$1.52M6−$12M7−$1.53M7—
Operating cash flow−$12.8M8−$16.6M9$9.21M10$6.16M11−$579,18711
Capital expenditure$61,49812$484,17213$140,81314$015$163,58815
Free cash flow (derived)−$12.8M8−$17.1M9$9.07M10$6.16M11−$742,77511
Total debt$458,57116——$491,21417$017
Cash & equivalents$6.65M18$1.82M19$3.74M20$7.22M21$1.77M21
Diluted shares21.1M27.8M29.7M29.9M31.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$5.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
—
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.24
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $5.81 of net worth that generated −$0.24 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-16% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 6%FY23 -63%FY24 -5%FY25 —

It earned about -16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+49% shares · 5y

Share count is up 49% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.54 and $3.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$6.16M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$6.16M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.54
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.86
Base5.0%$3.54
Bull10.0%$4.35

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001683168-22-006660 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001683168-23-006454 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001683168-24-006560 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001683168-25-007480 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001683168-22-006660 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001683168-23-006454 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001683168-24-006560 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001683168-22-006660 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001683168-23-006454 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001683168-24-006560 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001683168-25-007480 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001683168-22-006660 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001683168-23-006454 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001683168-24-006560 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001683168-25-007480 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001683168-21-004546 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001683168-25-007480 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001683168-22-006660 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001683168-23-006454 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001683168-24-006560 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001683168-25-007480 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)