Intrepid Potash, Inc.
IPIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileIntrepid Potash, Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $45.83 and $54.15 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | $279.1M1 | $254.7M1 | $298.3M1 |
| Net income | — | — | −$35.7M2 | −$212.8M2 | $11.2M2 |
| Operating cash flow | $79.1M3 | $88.8M4 | $43.2M5 | $72.5M5 | $55.8M5 |
| Capital expenditure | $19.8M6 | $68.7M7 | $65.1M8 | $38.7M8 | $30.2M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $59.3M3 | $20.1M4 | −$21.8M5 | $33.8M5 | $25.5M5 |
| Total debt | $09 | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $36.5M10 | $18.5M11 | $4.07M12 | $41.3M12 | $83.5M12 |
| Diluted shares | 13.4M | 13.5M | 12.8M | 12.9M | 13.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $373.03 of net worth that earned you $8.49 and generated $19.39 of cash last year.
It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $45.83 and $54.15 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth8.3%
- fcfBase$25.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth8.3%
- fcfBase$25.5M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $34.04 |
| Base | 8.3% | $45.83 |
| Bull | 13.3% | $54.81 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 8.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001421461-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001421461-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001421461-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001421461-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001421461-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001421461-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001421461-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001421461-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001421461-22-000007 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001421461-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001421461-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001421461-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)