MeritValue

INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/

IPdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.41 and $11.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.4B1$21.2B2$16B3$15.8B3$23.6B3
Net income$1.75B4$1.5B4$288M5$557M5−$3.52B5
Operating cash flow$2.03B6$2.17B7$1.83B8$1.68B8$1.7B8
Capital expenditure$480M9$931M10$1.14B11$921M11$1.86B11
Free cash flow (derived)$1.55B6$1.24B7$692M8$757M8−$159M8
Total debt$5.78B12$6.34B13$5.73B14$5.75B15$10.8B15
Cash & equivalents$1.3B16$804M16$1.11B16$1.06B17$1.15B17
Diluted shares392.4M367.0M349.1M354.2M505.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$293.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$69.53
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$214.02

10 shares is a claim on $293.2 of net worth that earned you −$69.53 and generated −$3.14 of cash last year, against $214.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 14%FY23 5%FY24 6%FY25 -9%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+29% shares · 5y

Share count is up 29% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 87% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.41 and $11.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$692M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$692M
Earnings Power Value
$11.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$557M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.41
Base0.0%$0.41
Bull5.0%$5.15

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000051434-24-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000051434-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000051434-26-000055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000051434-24-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000051434-26-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000051434-24-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000051434-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000051434-26-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000051434-24-000024 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000051434-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000051434-26-000055 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000051434-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000051434-24-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000051434-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000051434-26-000055 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000051434-25-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000051434-26-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)