MeritValue

Samsara Inc.

IOTdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Samsara Inc. earns about -96% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 107% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.01 and $4.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$428.3M1$652.5M2$937.4M3$1.25B3$1.62B3
Net income−$355M4−$247.4M5−$286.7M6−$154.9M6−$9.12M6
Operating cash flow−$171.5M7−$103M8−$11.8M9$131.7M9$236.2M9
Capital expenditure$19.4M10$33.2M11$11M12$20.2M12$28.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$190.8M7−$136.3M8−$22.8M9$111.5M9$207.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$921.2M13$200.7M14$135.5M15$227.6M16$318.8M16
Diluted shares277.5M514.3M534.9M556.3M573.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$24.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.62
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $24.77 of net worth that earned you −$0.16 and generated $3.62 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-96% avg · 5y
FY22 -413%FY23 -26%FY24 -29%FY25 -14%FY26 0%

It earned about -96% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+107% shares · 5y

Share count is up 107% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.01 and $4.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$111.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$111.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.01
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.33
Base5.0%$4.01
Bull10.0%$4.81

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001642896-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001642896-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-018167 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001642896-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001642896-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-018167 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001642896-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001642896-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-018167 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001642896-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001642896-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-018167 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001642896-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001642896-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001642896-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001628280-26-018167 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)