MeritValue

IonQ, Inc.

IONQdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

IonQ, Inc. earns about -33% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 104% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.1M1$11.1M2$22M3$43.1M3$130M3
Net income−$106.2M4−$48.5M5−$157.8M6−$331.6M6−$510.4M6
Operating cash flow−$26.5M7−$44.7M8−$78.8M9−$105.7M9−$283.2M9
Capital expenditure$7.78M10$9.34M11$13.7M12$18M12$16.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$34.3M7−$54M8−$92.5M9−$123.7M9−$299.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$399M13$44.4M14$35.7M15$54.4M16$1.03B16
Diluted shares137.6M197.7M202.6M213.0M280.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$135.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$18.21
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.69
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $135.53 of net worth that earned you −$18.21 and generated −$10.69 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-33% avg · 5y
FY21 -44%FY22 -6%FY23 -24%FY24 -75%FY25 -14%

It earned an average -33% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+104% shares · 5y

Share count is up 104% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-085558 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027722 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071562 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-085558 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027722 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071562 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-085558 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027722 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071562 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-085558 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027722 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071562 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-085558 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022072 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027722 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071562 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)