MeritValue

IO Biotech, Inc.

IOBTQdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'

The thesis, from the filings

IO Biotech, Inc. earns about -88% on equity. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue—————
Net income−$12M1−$67.9M2−$71.5M3−$86.1M4−$95.5M4
Operating cash flow−$9.96M5−$40.6M6−$59.7M7−$71.7M8−$82.3M8
Capital expenditure—$153,0009$690,00010$323,00011$44,00011
Free cash flow (derived)—−$40.8M6−$60.4M7−$72.1M8−$82.4M8
Total debt————$012
Cash & equivalents$3.41M13$211.5M14$142.6M15$143.2M16$60M16
Diluted shares04.3M28.8M43.5M65.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14.49
Free cash flow it threw off
−$12.51
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $7.14 of net worth that earned you −$14.49 and generated −$12.51 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-88% avg · 5y
FY20 —FY21 -32%FY22 -51%FY23 -65%FY24 -203%

It earned an average -88% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Not enough history to read capital allocation.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-005244 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007902 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026275 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047744 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-005244 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007902 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026275 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047744 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007902 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026275 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047744 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047744 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-005244 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007902 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026275 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047744 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)