MeritValue

Invitation Homes Inc.

INVHdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Invitation Homes Inc. earns about 4% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.67 and $32.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2B1$2.24B2$2.43B3$2.62B3$2.73B3
Net income$261.4M4$383.3M5$519.5M6$453.9M6$587.9M6
Operating cash flow$907.7M7$1.02B8$1.11B9$1.08B9$1.21B9
Capital expenditure$77.4M10$122.4M11$30.2M12$30.6M12$28.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$830.3M7$901.2M8$1.08B9$1.05B9$1.18B9
Total debt$8B13$7.77B14$8.55B15$8.2B16$8.38B17
Cash & equivalents$610.2M18$262.9M19$700.6M20$174.5M21$130M21
Diluted shares579.2M611.1M613.3M613.6M613.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$155.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.59
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.21
Debt you’d be carrying
$136.67

10 shares is a claim on $155.42 of net worth that earned you $9.59 and generated $19.21 of cash last year, against $136.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
4% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 4%FY23 5%FY24 5%FY25 6%

It earned about 4% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.67 and $32.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$32.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.1%
  • fcfBase$1.08B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$23.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.1%
  • fcfBase$1.08B
Earnings Power Value
$7.67
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$453.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $23.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.64
Base9.1%$23.51
Bull14.1%$31.87

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001687229-24-000013 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001687229-25-000008 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001687229-26-000016 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001687229-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001687229-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001687229-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001687229-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001687229-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001687229-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001687229-24-000013 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001687229-25-000008 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001687229-26-000016 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001687229-22-000002 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001687229-23-000029 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001687229-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001687229-25-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001687229-26-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001687229-23-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001687229-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001687229-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001687229-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)