MeritValue

Innoviva, Inc.

INVAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Innoviva, Inc. earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $26.93 and $35.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$391.9M1$331.3M2$310.5M3$358.7M3$411.3M3
Net income$368.8M4$220.3M5$179.7M6$23.4M6$271.2M6
Operating cash flow$363.8M7$201.7M8$141.1M9$188.7M9$196.9M9
Capital expenditure$010$67,00011$411,00012$270,00012$1.13M12
Free cash flow (derived)$363.8M7$201.7M8$140.7M9$188.4M9$195.8M9
Total debt$394.7M13$540.4M14$446.2M15$448.3M16$257.7M16
Cash & equivalents$201.5M17$291M18$193.5M19$305M20$550.9M20
Diluted shares94.3M95.2M86.9M74.2M84.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$138.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$31.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.1
Debt you’d be carrying
$30.41

10 shares is a claim on $138.37 of net worth that earned you $31.99 and generated $23.1 of cash last year, against $30.41 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY21 63%FY22 29%FY23 21%FY24 4%FY25 32%

It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 35% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $26.93 and $35.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$32.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$188.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$188.4M
Earnings Power Value
$26.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$220.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$32.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$35.22
Base0.0%$35.22
Bull5.0%$42.91

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025088 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027864 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071776 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025088 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027864 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071776 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025088 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027864 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071776 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025088 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027864 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071776 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005168 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025088 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027864 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071776 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005168 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025088 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027864 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071776 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)