MeritValue

INTUIT INC.

INTUdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

INTUIT INC. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $87.3 and $658.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.63B1$12.7B2$14.4B3$16.3B3$18.8B3
Net income$2.06B4$2.07B5$2.38B6$2.96B6$3.87B6
Operating cash flow$3.25B7$3.89B8$5.05B9$4.88B9$6.21B9
Capital expenditure$53M10$157M11$210M12$191M12$84M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.2B7$3.73B8$4.84B9$4.69B9$6.12B9
Total debt$4.07B13$13.8B14$12.2B15$12.1B16$11.9B16
Cash & equivalents$2.56B17$2.8B18$2.85B19$3.61B19$2.88B19
Diluted shares273.0M284.0M283.0M284.0M283.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$696.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$136.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$216.36
Debt you’d be carrying
$422.12

10 shares is a claim on $696.47 of net worth that earned you $136.71 and generated $216.36 of cash last year, against $422.12 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 8%FY23 10%FY24 12%FY25 14%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 194% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $87.3 and $658.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$658.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.8%
  • fcfBase$4.84B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$422.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.8%
  • fcfBase$4.84B
Earnings Power Value
$87.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.38B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$146.36
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $422.19
The three cases
Bear0.0%$212.13
Base14.8%$422.19
Bull19.8%$520.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000896878-23-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000896878-24-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000896878-25-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000896878-23-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000896878-24-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000896878-25-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000896878-23-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000896878-24-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000896878-25-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000896878-23-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000896878-24-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000896878-25-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000896878-22-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000896878-23-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000896878-24-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-31 · accession 0000896878-25-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000896878-23-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000896878-24-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000896878-25-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)