MeritValue

INSEEGO CORP.

INSGdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $9.31 and $9.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$262.4M1$245.3M2$167.3M3$191.2M4$166.2M4
Net income−$48.1M5−$68M5−$46.2M6$4.57M7$838,0007
Operating cash flow−$25.2M8−$33.3M9$5.96M10$33.5M11$7.2M11
Capital expenditure$4.93M12$1.48M13$224,00014$100,00015$661,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$30.1M8−$34.8M9$5.73M10$33.4M11$6.53M11
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$46.5M16$7.14M17$2.41M18$39.6M19$24.9M19
Diluted shares103.2M10.7M11.4M12.5M15.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$2.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.55
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.32
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$2.67 of net worth that earned you $0.55 and generated $4.32 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−85% shares · 5y

Share count is down 85% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.31 and $9.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$6.53M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$6.53M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.82
Base5.0%$9.31
Bull10.0%$11.1

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001022652-23-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001022652-24-000001 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001022652-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001022652-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001022652-23-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001022652-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001022652-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001022652-23-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001022652-24-000001 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001022652-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001022652-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001022652-23-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001022652-24-000001 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001022652-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001022652-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001022652-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001022652-24-000001 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001022652-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001022652-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)