MeritValue

Inspired Entertainment, Inc.

INSEdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Inspired Entertainment, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.46 and $10.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$205.8M1$284.5M2$322.9M2$297.1M3$304.1M3
Net income−$40.6M4$21.2M5$6.9M5$64.8M6−$17M6
Operating cash flow$2.4M7$29.6M8$54.7M8$31.7M9$52M9
Capital expenditure$11.3M10$20.6M11$32M11$17M12$35.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$8.9M7$9M8$22.7M8$14.7M9$16.3M9
Total debt$625.7M13$560.5M14$633.4M15$624.2M16$708.4M16
Cash & equivalents$47.8M17$25M17$40M18$29.3M18$43.3M18
Diluted shares24.4M29.1M29.2M29.2M29.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$5.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$243.77

10 shares is a claim on −$5.57 of net worth that earned you −$5.85 and generated $5.61 of cash last year, against $243.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 0%FY22 10%FY23 4%FY24 0%FY25 -1%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+19% shares · 5y

Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 13% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.46 and $10.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$10.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$16.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$16.3M
Earnings Power Value
$2.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014609 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000737 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-025028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014609 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000737 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-025028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014609 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000737 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-025028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014609 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000737 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-025028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-007973 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014609 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000737 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-025028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000737 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-025028 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)